Q1 Sales and Profits were below estimates as the recession weighs on advertising spending. We look for ad spend pick-up for the remainder of the year driven by elections and an economic recovery. The cash flows are healthy which enables intact dividend payouts.
Weak economy affects ad spend Read More »
Q1 Revenues and Profits beat estimates on doubledigit growth for all key lines. The company is entering a 2-year investment phase but expected ROE is still at attractive levels. The valuation below book is so attractive that more than 12,000 Estonians have bought into the share despite the usual friendly rivalry between the Baltic states.
+12K Estonians cannot be wrong Read More »
Even excluding positive one-offs, the start of the year was satisfactory as Q1 is a low-season quarter. The Isabelle divestment implies upside to Tallink’s ships book value. We lower our estimates based on consumer weakness reported by several companies in the region. Our dividend forecast is unchanged.
Satisfactory start of the year Read More »
Revenue and profits grew strongly leading to an upward valuation adjustment of the portfolio companies by the external valuator. The NAV discount is at historical highs. The company entered the EXIT phase this year. An exit at the NAV could result in a lower NAV discount/higher share price.
We are in EXIT phase Read More »
The economic slowdown finally caused the Estonian consumer to step back, resulting in a lower than estimated profit, while sales was in-line. We see no reason to panic as food retail is resilient, cash flows are strong, and the economy is expected to improve. Hence, the 16-year dividend streak is forecast to continue with attractive yields.
2023 was a challenging year for the Cargo segment but we believe in a stabilization during 2024. The Passenger segment continue its gradual recovery. The proposed 2023 dividend should give some downside protection. We make minor estimate changes and reiterate our Base case DCF Fair value.
Dividends cushions downside Read More »
The 2023 adj. EBITDA exceeded both the guidance and our estimate. Ignitis Grupe’s integrated business model and skillful hedging were key to the earnings beat. We raise our adj. EBITDA estimates and Base case Fair value slightly and continue to forecast steadily increasing dividends.
Winning Business Model Read More »
Following the share price decline, the Akola Group (AKO) share is trading at its long-term average PE. The Q2-23/24 result was below our estimate mainly due to low commodity trading volumes – we look for a pickup in H2-23/24. The positive earnings trend is still intact on stronger Food segment margins.
Correction could be over Read More »
The 2023 Net profit set a record and all guided targets were met adjusted for one-offs. Siauliu Bankas (SAB) is starting its journey to become a full-service bank competing with the Swedish banks. This means two years of above normal investments, but the expected dividend yield is still above the locally listed Estonian banks.
Strong cash flows mean Ekspress Grupp (EEG) is going from overleveraged to overcapitalized as digital products generate cash. We expect the Free Cash Flow to enable attractive dividends and debt reduction. We reiterate our Base case Fair value and dividend forecast.
