Q3/25 Sales and EBITDA beat estimates. The Altero stake sale boosted an already strong cash flow and we see additional value from associated companies. We reiterate our dividend forecast but see substantial upside if rewarding shareholders is prioritized.
Substantial dividend upside Read More »
Q2 Sales beat estimates while EBITDA was inline which is not too bad given the Estonian economy and the consumer confidence trend in Lithuania. We look for an improving ad market in 2026. Our profits estimates and Fair value are lowered but our dividend forecast is intact.
Not too bad given the economy Read More »
Q1/25 Sales was in line while profit was below. The Ad sales decline was more than offset by other segments. The forecast dividend yield has a large safety margin alternatively substantial upside. The valuation continues to be at historical lows.
6% yield with potential for more Read More »
Q4/24 surprised positively with ad revenue growth. In 2025, we expect continued growth from Lithuania and a return to growth in Estonia. We do not believe the digital subscriber target will be reached but this should not be surprising. Excluding acquisitions, the dividend yield is compelling.
Strong finish of the year Read More »
Q3/24 revenues and profit were below estimates as the sluggish Estonian economy burdened ad spending. We lower our estimates but still expect dividends to cushion the downside. The 14-year low valuation implies the weak ad market is priced in. We look for an earnings recovery next year.
Estonian recession burden ad spend Read More »
Q2 profits beat estimates while sales was slightly below. Fear of Russia and a sluggish Estonian economy has taken the valuation to all-time lows. This might be a good candidate for bottom fishers as almost half of the sales is outside of Estonia and subscription revenues keep increasing. We keep estimates and Fair value unchanged.
Valuation at 14-year low Read More »
Q1 Sales and Profits were below estimates as the recession weighs on advertising spending. We look for ad spend pick-up for the remainder of the year driven by elections and an economic recovery. The cash flows are healthy which enables intact dividend payouts.
Weak economy affects ad spend Read More »
Strong cash flows mean Ekspress Grupp (EEG) is going from overleveraged to overcapitalized as digital products generate cash. We expect the Free Cash Flow to enable attractive dividends and debt reduction. We reiterate our Base case Fair value and dividend forecast.
Sales was below while Net profit was inline. Ad revenue growth is still healthy and niche segments show strong growth. A European ban on “behavioral advertising” could benefit local media players such as Ekspress Grupp. We lower estimates somewhat but keep our dividend forecast.
