Q1 beat estimates as the company delivered doubledigit revenue growth. Higher financial expenses are likely to offset the operational improvement this year but next year, we expect a significant net profit increase. We raise our estimates and fair value, while leaving our dividend forecast unchanged.

2022 Sales increased 20% while underlying Net profits increased 14%. Both Sales and Profits beat our Q4/22 estimates resulting in a full-year 2022 double-digit growth in both sales and profits. We expect the double-digit growth to continue in 2023. Our estimates and Fair value are raised.

Q3/22 sales and profits were well above forecast; however, we lower our forecast reflecting a mild recession next year. We believe the company is well prepared for a recession. The DCF and peer valuation indicate upside.

The Q2 sales and profits were significantly above estimates. We believe the estimated dividends and the buy-back program protects the share price downside, while continued strong digital sales present an upside.

Media companies who successfully adopted the digital business model are in a favorable position to leverage on digital sales. Furthermore, the Russia – Ukraine war has significantly increased the media industry’s importance. We believe Ekspress Grupp will reach all its financial targets and foresee a continued good dividend yield.

Tragic events such as pandemics and wars increase the demand for quality news and reveal the danger of “fake news”. Ekspress Grupp’s (EEG) 2021 beat expectations as the pandemic elevated the demand for news and the divestment of Print services boosted margins. We forecast double-digit dividend growth in 2022 to 2024.

Without the Print segment, Ekspress Grupp (EEG) is a cash rich, asset light, digital media house – potent to pay attractive dividends. Furthermore, the post-print EBIT margins are boosted which motivates a higher valuation multiple. We raise our Base case Fair value to EUR 2.10 per share.

The proposed Print segment divestment would catapult Ekspress Grupp (EEG) into a digital leader. The Q2 report (including Print) was above estimates. We foresee a higher valuation multiple once the print divestment is completed and raise our Fair value per share. If a revaluation does not happen, we believe EEG could become a takeover target.

Despite the pandemic, Ekspress managed to increase Net profits, even excluding positive oneoffs. The digital transformation is on track which could lead to margin and multiple expansion. We raise our Base case motivated share price.

Both Q3 sales and profits were significantly better than expected, driven by online ads and digital subscriptions as well as cost efficiencies. The report makes us wonder if Ekspress Grupp could be on the stairway to digital leadership.