Q2/25 Group adj. EBITDA was in-line with forecast as better than expected Reserve Capacities segment offset negative deviations from other segments. The 2025 guidance was reiterated. The Green Generation expansion is on track for an impressive triple-digit growth. We raise our Fair value.

Q1/25 adj. EBITDA was above estimate on solid performance by core segments. Guidance was reiterated. The updated 2025-28 strategy confirms the growth plan. The Enefit Green buy-out could have a positive effect on Ignitis Group share. It also reveals the superiority of the integrated vs. the renewable only business model.

Ignitis stock has been trending upwards, supported by strong Q3 2024 results and an increase in adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year. As the actual 2024 results exceeded this guidance, we view the recent dip in the stock price as temporary and anticipate continued adjusted EBITDA growth in 2025.

Once again, the quarterly adj. EBITDA was above our forecast and grew vs. last year. The 2024 guidance was raised on the back of the strong Green Capacities performance. The mix of regulated and unregulated operations enable earnings growth despite lower electricity prices and higher interest rates.

Q2/24 adj. EBITDA beat our forecast and grew compared to last year, proving the resilience to higher interest rates and lower energy prices. The Company raised adj. EBITDA guidance and received reaffirmed BBB+ (stable outlook) credit rating. We reiterate our dividend forecast and Fair value with increased confidence.

Q1/24 adj. EBITDA surpassed our estimate and allowed Ignitis Group to achieve around 40% of its full-year 2024 guidance. The company is on track to fulfill its long-term strategy backed by a strong green generation pipeline and solid financial position.

The 2023 adj. EBITDA exceeded both the guidance and our estimate. Ignitis Grupe’s integrated business model and skillful hedging were key to the earnings beat. We raise our adj. EBITDA estimates and Base case Fair value slightly and continue to forecast steadily increasing dividends.

Profits exceeded estimates as management did an excellent job minimizing the effects of higher interest rates and lower energy prices. The estimated net yield beats the bank deposit rate. We reiterate our Base case target price of EUR 26.53.

Earnings beat our estimates and grew despite lower electricity prices as Ignitis Grupe’s integrated utilities business model outperformed the pure energy generation model. The Green Generation expansion is on track. A friendlier WACC methodology signifies a more market friendly regulator.