Another positive report with double-digit earnings growth, reduction in working capital, and raised green generation capacity targets. We feel comfortable with the guidance, forecast, and net debt. We see room for more than 3% dividend growth. Our estimate and target price are reiterated.

Once again, earnings came in above forecast and the full-year guidance was exceeded. Our sum-of-the-parts valuation imply a significant discount on the Green Generation segment. We make minor adjustments to our adj. EBITDA and dividend estimates and keep our Base case Fair value unchanged.

Q3/22 earnings came in significantly above forecast, driven by the Green Generation segment. The guidance was raised once again and we adjust our estimates accordingly. Our dividend forecast and target price is reiterated.

Continued strong performance by the Green Generation segment prompted another guidance increase. However, uncertainty in the energy market resulted in increased net working capital level. Despite that, the dividend per share is in line with Dividend policy and our Base case Fair value is reiterated.

Better than expected Q1 numbers and raised guidance have increased confidence in our dividend forecast. As the stock market sentiment remains muted, the net dividend yields still hover around 6%. We raise our estimates and Fair value per share.

War worries have pushed the proposed and estimated dividend net yields to 6%. Meanwhile, the company stands by its IPO plan, underpinned by the Green Generation segment. We re-initiate estimates based on the company’s new strategic plan.

The regulatory risk in Ignitis Grupe (IGN) may materialize due to the regulators’ (NERC) proposed Networkselectricity methodology amendment for the newr egulatory period starting 2022. On the opposing side is the Lithuanian Finance Ministry who proposed a dividend in August, reflecting different views by the institutions. Investors’ share value is now jeopardized by the Lithuanian regulator. We put our estimates “Under review” until we get more regulatory clarity. The potential share price effect is substantial.

Since the IPO, Ignitis Group’s reported profits have exceeded guidance and expectations, but the share performance has been lackluster, which we believe is mainly due to a share “overhang”. A resolution of the share overhang could be a share price trigger, but patience is needed.

We believe the market underestimate Ignitis Group’s Green Generation pipeline and its ability to generate dividend growth. The proposed European Climate Law could ignite an investment boom into renewable energy and Ignitis Group is positioned to benefit.