Q1 earnings was better than expected even adjusted for one-off income. The earnings recovery continues driven by increased vessel calls rather than pax growth. We raise our estimates and Fair value while our dividend forecast is left unchanged, with upside potential.

Q4/24 Net profit was significantly above forecast. 2024 feels like a turnaround year confirming that 2023 was the low. A resolution in Ukraine could have a substantial positive effect on operations. We reiterate our Base case FV and dividend forecast.

Q3/24 Revenues were inline while profits were below. However, adjusted for one-offs, the profits were above forecast and grew healthily. Several factors indicate a turnaround, but it is too early to make a strong call. We make minor adjustments to our estimates.

Both Q2 Revenues and EBIT beat our forecast as the Other segment surprised positively, and cost control improved margins. We leave estimates roughly unchanged and reiterate our Fair value. The dividend yield should protect the downside while operations recover gradually.

Cargo volumes in Tallinna Sadam’s (TSM) ports stabilized earlier than we expected and were unchanged in the quarter, following nine consecutive quarterly declines (eight of them double-digit). The important Ferry tender was won and a possible SPO was announced. We increase the Base case Fair value on raised estimates.

2023 was a challenging year for the Cargo segment but we believe in a stabilization during 2024. The Passenger segment continue its gradual recovery. The proposed 2023 dividend should give some downside protection. We make minor estimate changes and reiterate our Base case DCF Fair value.

Sales and profits were below estimates as vessel call revenues declined and the cargo market softened in the economic downturn. We lower our estimates and Base case Fair value and look for a vessel call recovery next year which combined with an efficiency program should result in a profit increase.

Sales and profits were below estimates as the vessel calls declined despite a healthy pax growth. We do not expect a quick recovery in the vessel call growth rate. We lower our forecast and Base case Fair value. The dividend yield should cushion the downside.

Q1 revenues and earnings were better than forecast, especially excluding one-offs. The PAX recovery is gradual but ongoing. We see operating earnings bottoming out this year and improve coming two years. We lower our estimates and Fair value slightly, but share still looks undervalued, in our view.