Adjusted for one-offs, the Q4 report was better than expected. The real estate development is progressing and we update our real estate valuation in cooperation with 1Partner Advisory. No major changes are made to our estimates, while our Fair value is lowered due to a higher interest rate assumption and lower terminal EBIT margin.

Q3 Sales and earnings were above forecast, and the Cargo segment outlook was improved. We expect increasing EBIT in 2023 and 2024, but higher interest expenses mean a Pre-tax Profit improvement is visible in 2024 rather than 2023. Our dividend forecast is lowered according to the dividend policy.

The Q2 report was better on all lines as strong PAX growth and a positive Cargo sales mix shift supported revenues and earnings. We raise our estimates despite the high uncertainty due to Russian sanctions. The dividend yield looks attractive.

An expected embargo on Russian oil and gas is set to burden cargo sales and earnings. The pax recovery should offset some of the cargo drop. The estimated dividend yield of +6% could protect the downside.

The Q4/21 report was better than expected. The share has fallen around 20% this year on RussiaUkraine worries. Even assuming zero cargo flow from Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, the dividend capability is intact i.e., share price fall seems overdone.

Q3/21 earnings were below forecast but strong cash flow enable attractive dividends leading us to raise our dividend forecast. The passenger revenues are still low due to the pandemic, but we see a continued gradual recovery.

The Q2 Sales and EBIT were above estimates for all segments. The low Estonian vaccination rate softens the outlook for Passenger operations, but a strong Cargo and Ferry performance keeps dividends intact. We see potential for a hidden value revelation if the State buys out the Ferry segment’s vessels.

Accelerating vaccine roll-out combined with vaccine passports are set to resume travel around midsummer, resulting in a shift from negative to positive y-on-y sales growth. The real estate detailed plan is progressing, and we reiterate our timeline of an approved plan in 2023 or 2023.

We see large pent-up demand for cruises when travel restrictions are lightened – until then, nonpax operations should keep profitability at levels sufficient for healthy dividends. Progress within real estate development would be positive.

Tallinna Sadam’s (Tallinn Port – TSM) operations are more pandemic resilient than investors perceive in our view. From a long-term perspective, we see potential for significant value creation from real estate development.