The Q1 report was above estimates and confirmed a continued recovery. However, it is not a recovery to the “old normal” but to a “new normal” with higher charter revenues and Return on Equity. We raise our estimates and Fair value.

Q4/22 sales and profits were above our estimates. We believe investors are missing three key aspects when looking at Tallink. Our estimates and Fair value are raised, and we now expect a small dividend already this year.

Q3 sales and profits were above our estimates. Record high charter revenues could lead to the best low season EBITDA in 7 years. Higher expected interested expenses offset the operational improvement next year, but it should be visible in 2024 when we expect dividends to be resumed.

The Q2 report was better than feared, especially adjusted for the fuel price. The company is calibrating its business model mitigating its risk by increased focus on chartering. We believe Q3 could surprise positively while charter revenues limit the losses in the upcoming low season.

Q1/22 focus was on ramping up capacity for the highseason when the vast majority of the full-year EBITDA is collected. The pax recovery is faster than expected, but so is the fuel price increase. We look forward to a profitable summer.

Tallink widely exceeded our estimates for the second quarter in a row. To increase sales in a year when pax is down shows excellent operational adjustments. With a promising sales outlook, the fuel price replaces the pandemic as the main challenge.

Given the circumstances, this Q3 report was probably one of Tallink’s best ever, with significant beats on both sales and earnings, revealing excellent management under challenging conditions. The Vessel lease revenues also surprised positively which we believe supports the Book value. We raise our estimates and reiterate our Base case Fair value.

The Q2 report was above on Sales and below on earnings. The slowdown the Estonian vaccination rate delays the recovery and leads us to lower our estimates. The Cash flow was better than expected allowing banks to ask for an equity refill without causing liquidity worries.

Last week, Finland took the first step towards opening its borders. This is in line with our expectation of a gradual lifting of travel restrictions starting from the second half of June. We raise our full-year pax forecast but expect quite big y-on-y pax declines in Jun-Jul as there were no restrictions these months last

Förra veckan började Finland lätta på sina reserestriktioner, vilket är enligt vår förväntan om en gradvis förbättring från och med andra halvan a juni. Vi höjer vår passagerarprognos men flaggar för en ganska kraftig nedgång i jun-jul eftersom det inte fanns några restriktioner dessa månader förra året.