Both Sales and Profits were above our estimates. The Car trade segment posted quarterly y/y growth for the first time this year, widely outperforming the Estonian car market. We raise our Fair value slightly and expect an 18th consecutive dividend year.

Q2/25 profits were below forecast as consumers are under pressure from tax hikes. This year is challenging but there is no need to be “depresso” as the dividend yield is still decent and we foresee a consumer sentiment improvement in 2026.

Q1/25 was challenging due to seasonality, tax driven inflation, and volatile world events. We believe the consumer will be on the backfoot this year and come back next year. We lower our estimates and Fair value accordingly. The estimated dividend yield should cushion the downside.

The Estonian economy is in a multi-year slump and the mood is at historical lows. These are times when we feel more positive because it always feels worst at the bottom and TKM Grupp still has an attractive dividend yield backed by cash flows.

The sales and profits were in line with forecast. The profit decline is natural given the Estonian economicdownturn i.e., no reason for drama. The cash flows upports healthy dividends and we see no reason for the 17 year consecutive dividend run to be broken.

Despite declining profits, the cash flow stayed intact. The profit decline was expected as the recession affects Department store and Car spending. Solid cash flow management and cost control prompts us to leave our dividend estimates unchanged.

The economic slowdown finally caused the Estonian consumer to step back, resulting in a lower than estimated profit, while sales was in-line. We see no reason to panic as food retail is resilient, cash flows are strong, and the economy is expected to improve. Hence, the 16-year dividend streak is forecast to continue with attractive yields.

Q4 Sales and Profits beat our forecast, as Supermarkets and Car trading posted record profits. The attractive dividend yield is backed by strong cash flows. Given Estonia’s expected 2023 GDP decline of ~3%, the 27% Net profit growth is impressive.

Q3/23 Sales and Earnings were above estimates. Once again, Food retail showed strength in a sluggish economy. Furthermore, Car trade posted an excellent quarter defying our slowdown thesis. We raise our earnings estimates and reiterate our dividend estimates. The dividend yield is attractive vs. the bank deposit rate.

Despite the recession, Estonian consumers increased spending on restaurants, hotels, clothing, and footwear. Lower energy prices boosted margins in Q2/23. The Q2 report was above forecast and we raise our sales and profit estimates. Our dividend forecast is reiterated with a higher degree of confidence.